Toss-up · 2020 Senate

New Mexico Senate

In the 2020 New Mexico Senate race, Ben Ray Luján (D) won by about 6 points.

Ben Ray Luján· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+6.1

Final polls said

D+9.5

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Research & Polling Inc.	D+8.0	1.9	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	D+10.0	3.9	✓
3	GBAO	D+11.0	4.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
7	The Economist	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
8	Race to the WH	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
11	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓