Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+11.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+12.3 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2020-10-26 | 1180 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| GBAO | 2020-10-16 | 600 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-09-30 | 886 | D+10.0 | 4 |