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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2020 New Mexico Senate race, Ben Ray Luján (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | GBAO | D+11.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2020-10-262
GBAO2020-10-165
Public Policy Polling2020-09-304
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 New Mexico Senate race?
Ben Ray Luján (D) won, by about 6.1 points (D+6.1).
When was the 2020 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.