Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
R+2.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Øptimus Analytics | R+9.8 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Starboard Communications | R+9.4 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+6.6 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+6.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | R+3.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Morning Consult | R+2.2 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | R+1.8 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Impact Research | EVEN | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 11.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | D+2.0 | 12.3 | ✗ |
| 13 | Swayable | D+5.9 | 16.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 85% | 0.021 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Øptimus Analytics | 2020-11-01 | 802 | R+9.8 | 0 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 880 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 416 | D+5.9 | 16 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 904 | R+2.2 | 8 |
| Starboard Communications | 2020-10-26 | 800 | R+9.4 | 1 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2020-10-24 | 763 | R+1.8 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-24 | 1196 | EVEN | 10 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 926 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 2020-10-13 | 525 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-11 | 605 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-10 | 801 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Impact Research | 2020-10-02 | 1011 | EVEN | 10 |
| GBAO | 2020-09-26 | 800 | D+1.0 | 11 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-25 | 824 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-25 | 1123 | EVEN | 10 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-24 | 1080 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 2020-09-23 | 608 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 764 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-12 | 969 | EVEN | 10 |