Toss-up · 2020 Senate

South Carolina Senate

In the 2020 South Carolina Senate race, Lindsey Graham (R) won by about 10 points.

Lindsey Graham· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+10.3

Final polls said

R+2.3

8 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Øptimus Analytics	R+9.8	0.5	✓
2	Starboard Communications	R+9.4	0.9	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	R+6.0	4.3	✓
4	Data for Progress	R+3.0	7.3	✓
5	Morning Consult	R+2.2	8.1	✓
6	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	R+1.8	8.4	✓
7	YouGov	R+1.0	9.3	✓
8	Impact Research	EVEN	10.3	✗
9	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	10.3	✗
10	GBAO	D+1.0	11.3	✗
11	brilliant corners Research & Strategies	D+2.0	12.3	✗
12	Swayable	D+5.9	16.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 86%	0.020	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 77%	0.053	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 74%	0.068	✓
7	Race to the WH	Rep 74%	0.068	✓
8	The Economist	Rep 69%	0.096	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 65%	0.122	✓
10	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
11	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—