Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Texas Senate

In the 2020 Texas Senate race, John Cornyn (R) won by about 10 points.

John Cornyn· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+9.6

Final polls said

R+5.6

18 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	R+10.0	0.4	✓
2	Rasmussen Reports	R+9.0	0.6	✓
3	Cygnal	R+8.1	1.5	✓
4	University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research	R+8.0	1.6	✓
5	YouGov	R+7.3	2.3	✓
6	Swayable	R+13.0	3.4	✓
7	Gravis Marketing	R+6.0	3.6	✓
8	RMG Research	R+6.0	3.6	✓
9	Quinnipiac University	R+6.0	3.6	✓
10	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	R+5.0	4.6	✓
11	Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research	R+5.0	4.6	✓
12	Morning Consult	R+4.2	5.4	✓
13	Emerson College	R+4.0	5.6	✓
14	Data for Progress	R+3.0	6.6	✓
15	Public Policy Polling	R+3.0	6.6	✓
16	Civiqs	R+1.0	8.6	✓
17	Citizen Data	R+0.2	9.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 91%	0.007	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 86%	0.020	✓
6	Race to the WH	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
8	The Economist	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
9	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓