Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+5.6
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Rasmussen Reports | R+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.2 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | R+8.1 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | R+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+7.3 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Swayable | R+13.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | RMG Research | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | R+6.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | R+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | Morning Consult | R+4.2 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | Data for Progress | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Civiqs | R+1.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | Citizen Data | R+0.2 | 9.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (29)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2020-10-30 | 763 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-30 | 1042 | R+13.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 926 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2020-10-27 | 670 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-27 | 800 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 3267 | R+4.2 | 5 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 492 | R+4.8 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-24 | 1018 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-23 | 873 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-10-22 | 802 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| Univision/Latino Decisions/North Star Opinion Research | 2020-10-21 | 758 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Citizen Data | 2020-10-19 | 1000 | R+0.2 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-10-18 | 1145 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-18 | 600 | R+8.1 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-17 | 1000 | R+7.3 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-17 | 933 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research | 2020-10-17 | 925 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 3347 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2020-10-14 | 712 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-05 | 895 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-10-05 | 1000 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-02 | 1949 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-29 | 908 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-22 | 882 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-19 | 653 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-09-19 | 726 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2020-09-19 | 1078 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-09-17 | 1129 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 2616 | R+6.0 | 4 |