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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Arizona Governor
In the 2022 Arizona Governor race, Katie Hobbs (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.9
25 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+0.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Ascend Action | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | HighGround Inc. | R+1.4 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Civiqs | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Wick | R+2.4 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Data Orbital | R+3.1 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | co/efficient | R+3.3 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 22 | Emerson College | R+3.5 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.6 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 24 | Data for Progress | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | KAConsulting | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Alloy Analytics | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | Phillips Academy | R+11.1 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.724 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
39 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-064
Data Orbital2022-11-054
Research Co.2022-11-053
Targoz Market Research2022-11-043
Data for Progress2022-11-045
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Arizona Governor race?
Katie Hobbs (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2022 Arizona Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.