Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.9
25 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+0.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Ascend Action | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | HighGround Inc. | R+1.4 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Civiqs | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Wick | R+2.4 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Data Orbital | R+3.1 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | co/efficient | R+3.3 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 22 | Emerson College | R+3.5 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.6 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 24 | Data for Progress | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | KAConsulting | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Alloy Analytics | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | VotePredictor | R+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 28 | Phillips Academy | R+11.1 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (39)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-06 | 1094 | R+3.6 | 4 |
| Data Orbital | 2022-11-05 | 550 | R+3.1 | 4 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 560 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1359 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-02 | 550 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-11-02 | 501 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2022-11-01 | 500 | R+1.4 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1157 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1075 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 1000 | R+3.5 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-31 | 852 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Alloy Analytics | 2022-10-31 | 639 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-10-29 | 985 | R+11.1 | 12 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1003 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Wick | 2022-10-28 | 1122 | R+2.4 | 3 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-25 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-25 | 800 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-25 | 604 | EVEN | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-24 | 550 | R+11.0 | 12 |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 2022-10-23 | 669 | EVEN | 1 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-20 | 1111 | R+3.3 | 4 |
| Data Orbital | 2022-10-18 | 550 | R+2.5 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-16 | 600 | D+0.7 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-16 | 1078 | R+2.8 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-14 | 893 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2022-10-12 | 500 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-11 | 550 | R+3.7 | 4 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1000 | D+0.1 | 1 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-09 | 954 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-05 | 674 | R+2.6 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-02 | 1164 | EVEN | 1 |
| SSRS | 2022-09-29 | 795 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1008 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-23 | 500 | D+0.8 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-21 | 1260 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-17 | 768 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-16 | 1080 | R+4.4 | 5 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-12 | 500 | D+1.0 | 0 |