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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Arizona Governor
In the 2022 Arizona Governor race, Katie Hobbs (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.9
25 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+0.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+0.8 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | YouGov | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Ascend Action | R+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | HighGround Inc. | R+1.4 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | SSRS | D+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Research Co. | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Targoz Market Research | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Civiqs | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Noble Predictive Insights | R+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Wick | R+2.4 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Data Orbital | R+3.1 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 21 | co/efficient | R+3.3 | 4.0 | ✗ |
| 22 | Emerson College | R+3.5 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.6 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 24 | Data for Progress | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | KAConsulting | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | Alloy Analytics | R+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 27 | Phillips Academy | R+11.1 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.407 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 85% | 0.726 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
39 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-064
Data Orbital2022-11-054
Research Co.2022-11-053
Targoz Market Research2022-11-043
Data for Progress2022-11-045
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Arizona Governor race?
Katie Hobbs (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2022 Arizona Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.