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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Minnesota Governor
In the 2022 Minnesota Governor race, Tim Walz (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+9.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | D+3.4 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.5 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | St. Cloud State University | D+21.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-280
St. Cloud State University2022-10-2013
Trafalgar Group2022-10-188
Change Research2022-10-123
SurveyUSA2022-10-022
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Minnesota Governor race?
Tim Walz (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2022 Minnesota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.