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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Minnesota Governor
In the 2022 Minnesota Governor race, Tim Walz (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+9.5
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | D+3.4 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.5 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | St. Cloud State University | D+21.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-280
St. Cloud State University2022-10-2013
Trafalgar Group2022-10-188
Change Research2022-10-123
SurveyUSA2022-10-022
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Minnesota Governor race?
Tim Walz (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2022 Minnesota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.