Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+9.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+7.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cygnal | D+3.4 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+0.5 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 7 | St. Cloud State University | D+21.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-28 | 836 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2022-10-20 | 219 | D+21.0 | 13 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-18 | 1091 | R+0.5 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2022-10-12 | 1585 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-02 | 604 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-09-25 | 600 | D+3.4 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-14 | 1079 | D+2.7 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2022-09-13 | 800 | D+7.0 | 1 |