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Toss-up · 2022 House
Alaska House
In the 2022 Alaska House race, Mary S. Peltola (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dittman Research | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | D+12.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Dittman Research2022-11-022
Alaska Survey Research2022-09-263
Dittman Research2022-09-105
Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research2022-09-084
Alaska Survey Research2022-07-221
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Alaska House race?
Mary S. Peltola (D) won, by about 9.9 points (D+9.9).
When was the 2022 Alaska House election held?
It was held in November 2022.