Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dittman Research | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.6 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+12.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+6.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.121 | ✓ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research | 2022-11-02 | 400 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2022-09-26 | 1282 | D+12.8 | 3 |
| Dittman Research | 2022-09-10 | 394 | D+15.2 | 5 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-08 | 500 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2022-07-22 | 1219 | D+1.6 | 1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2022-07-04 | 1201 | D+11.0 | 8 |