Toss-up · 2022 House

Alaska House

In the 2022 Alaska House race, Mary S. Peltola (D) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

D+9.9

Final polls said

D+12.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Dittman Research	D+12.0	2.1	✓
2	Alaska Survey Research	D+12.8	2.9	✓
3	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+6.0	3.9	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 89%	0.011	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
4	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	Race to the WH	Dem 71%	0.084	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 65%	0.121	✓
13	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—