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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Jim Costa (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.4
Final polls said
D+0.4
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-10-028
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Jim Costa (D) won, by about 8.4 points (D+8.4).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.