Actual result
D+8.4
Final polls said
D+0.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.7 | 11.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-02 | 515 | D+0.4 | 8 |