Toss-up · 2022 House

California House

In the 2022 California House race, Mike Garcia (R) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

R+6.5

Final polls said

D+6.0

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Mellman Group	D+6.0	12.5	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
2	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 71%	0.084	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
9	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓
10	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 58%	0.175	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Race to the WH	Dem 56%	0.314	✗
13	The Economist	Dem 65%	0.423	✗
14	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 67%	0.447	✗