Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 7.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | D+6.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.175 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 67% | 0.453 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mellman Group | 2022-10-05 | 400 | D+6.0 | 12 |