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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Mike Garcia (R) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
R+6.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellman Group | D+6.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 58% | 0.175 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 53% | 0.218 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 56% | 0.314 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mellman Group2022-10-0512
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Mike Garcia (R) won, by about 6.5 points (R+6.5).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.