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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.033 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 5.3 points (D+5.3).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.