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Toss-up · 2022 House
California House
In the 2022 California House race, Mike Levin (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 82% | 0.033 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-291
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California House race?
Mike Levin (D) won, by about 5.3 points (D+5.3).
When was the 2022 California House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.