Toss-up · 2022 House

Colorado House

In the 2022 Colorado House race, Lauren Boebert (R) won by less than a point.

Actual result

R+0.2

Final polls said

D+1.5

2 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Keating Research	R+2.0	1.8	✓
2	Center Street PAC	D+5.0	5.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 96%	0.001	✓
7	The Economist	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
10	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 83%	0.031	✓