Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+1.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Keating Research | R+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Center Street PAC | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-03 | 144 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Keating Research | 2022-09-30 | 500 | R+2.0 | 2 |