Toss-up · 2022 House

Connecticut House

In the 2022 Connecticut House race, Jahana Hayes (D) won by less than a point.

Jahana Hayes· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+0.2

Final polls said

R+0.3

2 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	EVEN	0.2	✗
2	Emerson College	R+0.7	0.9	✗
3	Public Opinion Strategies	D+2.0	1.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Race to the WH	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 61%	0.152	✓
5	JHK Forecasts	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
6	The Economist	Dem 59%	0.168	✓
7	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
9	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
10	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 51%	0.257	✗
12	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗