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Toss-up · 2022 House
Connecticut House
In the 2022 Connecticut House race, Jahana Hayes (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.8
Final polls said
R+0.3
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | EVEN | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+0.7 | 1.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.257 | ✗ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2022-10-250
Emerson College2022-10-201
Public Opinion Strategies2022-10-052
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Connecticut House race?
Jahana Hayes (D) won, by about 0.8 points (D+0.8).
When was the 2022 Connecticut House election held?
It was held in November 2022.