Actual result
D+0.2
Final polls said
R+0.3
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+0.7 | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.271 | ✗ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-25 | 600 | EVEN | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-20 | 500 | R+0.7 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2022-10-05 | 400 | D+2.0 | 2 |