Toss-up · 2022 House

Florida House

In the 2022 Florida House race, Anna Paulina Luna (R) won by about 8 points.

Anna Paulina Luna· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+8.1

Final polls said

R+0.6

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	St. Pete Polls	R+0.6	7.5	✓
2	David Binder Research	EVEN	8.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
4	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
10	Race to the WH	Rep 85%	0.023	✓
11	The Economist	Rep 79%	0.044	✓
12	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 70%	0.093	✓