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Toss-up · 2022 House
Florida House
In the 2022 Florida House race, Anna Paulina Luna (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.1
Final polls said
R+0.6
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pete Polls | R+0.6 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | David Binder Research | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 60% | 0.161 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
St. Pete Polls2022-10-267
David Binder Research2022-10-058
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Florida House race?
Anna Paulina Luna (R) won, by about 8.1 points (R+8.1).
When was the 2022 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2022.