Actual result
R+8.1
Final polls said
R+0.6
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | St. Pete Polls | R+0.6 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | David Binder Research | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 69% | 0.097 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2022-10-26 | 509 | R+0.6 | 7 |
| David Binder Research | 2022-10-05 | 600 | EVEN | 8 |