Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+2.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+6.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+0.7 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 85% | 0.022 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | 2022-10-10 | 300 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 2022-10-04 | 400 | D+0.7 | 15 |