Toss-up · 2022 House

Florida House

In the 2022 Florida House race, María Elvira Salazar (R) won by about 15 points.

María Elvira Salazar· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+14.6

Final polls said

R+2.6

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Cygnal	R+6.0	8.6	✓
2	SEA Polling & Strategic Design	D+0.7	15.3	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	JHK Forecasts	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 95%	0.002	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 94%	0.004	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 92%	0.006	✓
5	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 86%	0.021	✓
13	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	The Economist	Rep 61%	0.152	✓