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Toss-up · 2022 House
Florida House
In the 2022 Florida House race, María Elvira Salazar (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+2.6
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+6.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | D+0.7 | 15.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 14 | The Economist | Rep 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Cygnal2022-10-109
SEA Polling & Strategic Design2022-10-0415
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Florida House race?
María Elvira Salazar (R) won, by about 14.6 points (R+14.6).
When was the 2022 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2022.