Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+3.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | D+3.9 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | InsiderAdvantage | D+3.3 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.2 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Dem 84% | 0.027 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-17 | 550 | D+3.3 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-15 | 515 | D+3.9 | 6 |