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Toss-up · 2022 House
Iowa House
In the 2022 Iowa House race, Zach Nunn (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.288 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Moore Information Group2022-10-241
Moore Information Group2022-09-231
Impact Research2022-09-091
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Iowa House race?
Zach Nunn (R) won, by about 0.7 points (R+0.7).
When was the 2022 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2022.