Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 55% | 0.302 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group | 2022-10-24 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Moore Information Group | 2022-09-23 | 400 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2022-09-09 | 500 | EVEN | 1 |