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Toss-up · 2022 House
Iowa House
In the 2022 Iowa House race, Zach Nunn (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 64% | 0.127 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 58% | 0.176 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 57% | 0.185 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.288 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Moore Information Group2022-10-241
Moore Information Group2022-09-231
Impact Research2022-09-091
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Iowa House race?
Zach Nunn (R) won, by about 0.7 points (R+0.7).
When was the 2022 Iowa House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.