Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+7.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.514 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-09-21 | 642 | D+9.0 | 5 |