← all past elections
Toss-up · 2022 House
Illinois House
In the 2022 Illinois House race, Eric Sorensen (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 69% | 0.098 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.514 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2022-09-215
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Illinois House race?
Eric Sorensen (D) won, by about 4.0 points (D+4.0).
When was the 2022 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2022.