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Toss-up · 2022 House
Illinois House
In the 2022 Illinois House race, Eric Sorensen (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 72% | 0.076 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 72% | 0.514 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2022-09-215
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Illinois House race?
Eric Sorensen (D) won, by about 4.0 points (D+4.0).
When was the 2022 Illinois House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.