Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+5.8 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | KAConsulting | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAConsulting | 2022-10-18 | 300 | D+5.0 | 5 |