Toss-up · 2022 House

Maryland House

In the 2022 Maryland House race, David J. Trone (D) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

D+9.6

Final polls said

D+5.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	KAConsulting	D+5.0	4.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 89%	0.011	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
8	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
10	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 71%	0.084	✓
12	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
13	The Economist	Dem 54%	0.212	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—