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Toss-up · 2022 House
Maryland House
In the 2022 Maryland House race, David J. Trone (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.6
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAConsulting | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 89% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 12 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
KAConsulting2022-10-185
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Maryland House race?
David J. Trone (D) won, by about 9.6 points (D+9.6).
When was the 2022 Maryland House election held?
It was held in November 2022.