Actual result
D+25.9
Final polls said
D+19.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+22.5 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+19.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+35.1 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 477 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2022-10-11 | 400 | D+35.1 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 694 | D+25.0 | 1 |