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Toss-up · 2022 House
Maine House
In the 2022 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+7.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+1.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.155 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.551 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2022-11-045
SurveyUSA2022-10-303
Pan Atlantic Research2022-10-111
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2022-09-175
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Maine House race?
Jared Forrest Golden (D) won, by about 6.1 points (D+6.1).
When was the 2022 Maine House election held?
It was held in November 2022.