Toss-up · 2022 House

Maine House

In the 2022 Maine House race, Jared Forrest Golden (D) won by about 6 points.

Jared Forrest Golden· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+6.1

Final polls said

D+2.0

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Pan Atlantic Research	D+7.4	1.3	✓
2	SurveyUSA	D+3.0	3.1	✓
3	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+1.0	5.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Race to the WH	Dem 71%	0.084	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 67%	0.109	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 61%	0.155	✓
7	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
10	The Economist	Dem 54%	0.212	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 74%	0.551	✗