Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+7.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+1.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 71% | 0.084 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.551 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 433 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-30 | 544 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2022-10-11 | 400 | D+7.4 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 333 | D+11.0 | 5 |