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Toss-up · 2022 House
Michigan House
In the 2022 Michigan House race, John James (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Target Insyght | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | R+7.9 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Target Insyght2022-10-172
Glengariff Group2022-10-057
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan House race?
John James (R) won, by about 0.5 points (R+0.5).
When was the 2022 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.