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Toss-up · 2022 House
Michigan House
In the 2022 Michigan House race, John James (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Target Insyght | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | R+7.9 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.067 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Target Insyght2022-10-172
Glengariff Group2022-10-057
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan House race?
John James (R) won, by about 0.5 points (R+0.5).
When was the 2022 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2022.