Actual result
R+0.5
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Target Insyght | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | Glengariff Group | R+7.9 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Rep 80% | 0.040 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 75% | 0.063 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Insyght | 2022-10-17 | 400 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Glengariff Group | 2022-10-05 | 400 | R+7.9 | 7 |