Actual result
D+5.4
Final polls said
D+2.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | D+5.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mitchell Research & Communications | R+0.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Target Insyght | D+18.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.164 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2022-11-02 | 402 | R+0.9 | 6 |
| Glengariff Group | 2022-10-19 | 400 | D+5.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2022-10-11 | 283 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Target Insyght | 2022-09-13 | 500 | D+18.0 | 13 |