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Toss-up · 2022 House
Michigan House
In the 2022 Michigan House race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+5.4
Final polls said
D+2.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | D+5.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mitchell Research & Communications | R+0.9 | 6.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Target Insyght | D+18.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 73% | 0.074 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 60% | 0.164 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-11-026
Glengariff Group2022-10-190
Mitchell Research & Communications2022-10-116
Target Insyght2022-09-1313
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan House race?
Elissa Slotkin (D) won, by about 5.4 points (D+5.4).
When was the 2022 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2022.