Toss-up · 2022 House

Michigan House

In the 2022 Michigan House race, Elissa Slotkin (D) won by about 5 points.

Elissa Slotkin· Sitting U.S. Senator · voting record →Tom Barrett· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+5.4

Final polls said

D+2.4

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Glengariff Group	D+5.7	0.3	✓
2	Mitchell Research & Communications	R+0.9	6.3	✗
3	Target Insyght	D+18.0	12.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
2	The Economist	Dem 74%	0.068	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 73%	0.074	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 65%	0.122	✓
5	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 60%	0.164	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Dem 54%	0.212	✓
9	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
10	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
11	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
12	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗