Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+1.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 15.6 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | 2022-09-29 | 335 | R+1.0 | 11 |