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Toss-up · 2022 House
Michigan House
In the 2022 Michigan House race, Daniel T. Kildee (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.1
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+1.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Cygnal2022-09-2911
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Michigan House race?
Daniel T. Kildee (D) won, by about 10.1 points (D+10.1).
When was the 2022 Michigan House election held?
It was held in November 2022.