Toss-up · 2022 House

Michigan House

In the 2022 Michigan House race, Daniel T. Kildee (D) won by about 10 points.

Actual result

D+10.1

Final polls said

R+1.0

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Cygnal	R+1.0	11.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 83%	0.029	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 75%	0.061	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 74%	0.068	✓
10	The Economist	Dem 73%	0.073	✓
11	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
12	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 59%	0.343	✗