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Toss-up · 2022 House
Minnesota House
In the 2022 Minnesota House race, Brad Finstad (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+11.5
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 90% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2022-10-223
SurveyUSA2022-07-284
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Minnesota House race?
Brad Finstad (R) won, by about 11.5 points (R+11.5).
When was the 2022 Minnesota House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.