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Toss-up · 2022 House
North Carolina House
In the 2022 North Carolina House race, Don Davis (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+15.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 76% | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2022-10-1210
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 North Carolina House race?
Don Davis (D) won, by about 4.7 points (D+4.7).
When was the 2022 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.