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Toss-up · 2022 House
North Carolina House
In the 2022 North Carolina House race, Don Davis (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+15.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2022-10-1210
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 North Carolina House race?
Don Davis (D) won, by about 4.7 points (D+4.7).
When was the 2022 North Carolina House election held?
It was held in November 2022.