Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+10.4 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+15.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 76% | 0.056 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 69% | 0.094 | ✓ |
| 13 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2022-10-12 | 402 | D+15.0 | 10 |