Toss-up · 2022 House

North Dakota House

In the 2022 North Dakota House race, Cara Mund (D) won by about 25 points.

Actual result

D+24.6

Final polls said

D+14.3

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Axis Research	D+22.0	2.6	✓
2	1892 Polling	D+17.0	7.6	✓
3	DFM Research	D+4.0	20.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
2	Race to the WH	Rep 98%	0.960	✗
3	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
4	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
5	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
6	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
7	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
8	RealClearPolitics	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
10	Split Ticket	Rep 99%	0.980	✗
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 100%	1.000	✗
12	The Economist	Rep 100%	1.000	✗
13	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 100%	1.000	✗
14	JHK Forecasts	Rep 100%	1.000	✗