Actual result
D+24.6
Final polls said
D+14.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Axis Research | D+22.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | 1892 Polling | D+17.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+9.8 | 14.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | DFM Research | D+4.0 | 20.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 94% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Rep 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 8 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 10 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.980 | ✗ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 12 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 1.000 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFM Research | 2022-09-20 | 400 | D+4.0 | 21 |
| Axis Research | 2022-09-18 | 402 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| 1892 Polling | 2022-09-11 | 518 | D+17.0 | 8 |