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Toss-up · 2022 House
New Jersey House
In the 2022 New Jersey House race, Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 79% | 0.042 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2022-09-233
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Jersey House race?
Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) won, by about 2.8 points (R+2.8).
When was the 2022 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2022.