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Toss-up · 2022 House
New Jersey House
In the 2022 New Jersey House race, Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.315 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GQR2022-09-233
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Jersey House race?
Thomas H. Kean Jr. (R) won, by about 2.8 points (R+2.8).
When was the 2022 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.