Actual result
R+2.8
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | EVEN | 2.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Economist | Rep 56% | 0.194 | ✓ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Rep 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 57% | 0.326 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2022-09-23 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |