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Toss-up · 2022 House
New Mexico House
In the 2022 New Mexico House race, Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+11.5
Final polls said
D+8.7
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+11.4 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+6.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 92% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-270
Research & Polling Inc.2022-10-246
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Mexico House race?
Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) won, by about 11.5 points (D+11.5).
When was the 2022 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2022.