Actual result
D+11.5
Final polls said
D+8.7
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+11.4 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+12.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+6.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.011 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 372 | D+11.4 | 0 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2022-10-24 | 410 | D+6.0 | 6 |