Toss-up · 2022 House

New Mexico House

In the 2022 New Mexico House race, Melanie Ann Stansbury (D) won by about 12 points.

Melanie Ann Stansbury· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+11.5

Final polls said

D+8.7

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+11.4	0.1	✓
2	Research & Polling Inc.	D+6.0	5.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	Race to the WH	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
7	The Economist	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
8	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Fox News	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 90%	0.011	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓