Toss-up · 2022 House

New Mexico House

In the 2022 New Mexico House race, Gabriel Vasquez (D) won by less than a point.

Actual result

D+0.7

Final polls said

R+2.5

3 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	D+1.0	0.3	✓
2	Research & Polling Inc.	D+2.0	1.3	✓
3	Global Strategy Group	D+2.0	1.3	✓
4	Emerson College	R+10.6	11.3	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
2	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	Race to the WH	Rep 55%	0.303	✗
5	The Economist	Rep 59%	0.348	✗
6	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
7	JHK Forecasts	Rep 72%	0.518	✗
8	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 74%	0.544	✗
9	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
10	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
12	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 78%	0.608	✗
14	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 83%	0.685	✗