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Toss-up · 2022 House
New Mexico House
In the 2022 New Mexico House race, Gabriel Vasquez (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+10.6 | 11.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.544 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.608 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.685 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-2711
Research & Polling Inc.2022-10-241
The New York Times/Siena College2022-10-220
Global Strategy Group2022-09-231
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New Mexico House race?
Gabriel Vasquez (D) won, by about 0.7 points (D+0.7).
When was the 2022 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2022.