Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
R+2.5
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.1 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+10.6 | 11.3 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.553 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 78% | 0.608 | ✗ |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 83% | 0.685 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 302 | R+10.6 | 11 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2022-10-24 | 410 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-22 | 398 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-09-23 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |