Actual result
D+5.6
Final polls said
R+5.8
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+8.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+11.6 | 17.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 57% | 0.180 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 53% | 0.221 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 11 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 63% | 0.397 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Rep 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 480 | R+11.6 | 17 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-20 | 399 | EVEN | 6 |