Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
R+4.2
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.129 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 61% | 0.154 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 510 | R+4.2 | 8 |