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Toss-up · 2022 House
Nevada House
In the 2022 Nevada House race, Susie Lee (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
R+4.2
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.2 | 8.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.129 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 51% | 0.260 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-288
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Nevada House race?
Susie Lee (D) won, by about 4.0 points (D+4.0).
When was the 2022 Nevada House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.