Actual result
D+2.7
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.9 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+6.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.015 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 65% | 0.119 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2022-10-11 | 400 | R+6.0 | 9 |