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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Michael V. Lawler (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.6
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 67% | 0.108 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 70% | 0.490 | ✗ |
| 7 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.533 | ✗ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Race to the WH | Dem 86% | 0.740 | ✗ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 88% | 0.770 | ✗ |
| 14 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
McLaughlin & Associates2022-10-119
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Michael V. Lawler (R) won, by about 0.6 points (R+0.6).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.