Actual result
D+6.1
Final polls said
D+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.3 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.246 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2022-10-29 | 432 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-10-26 | 400 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-27 | 453 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-09-17 | 400 | D+1.0 | 5 |