Toss-up · 2022 House

New York House

In the 2022 New York House race, Francis Conole (D) won by about 6 points.

Actual result

D+6.1

Final polls said

D+3.0

2 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Siena College	D+4.0	2.1	✓
2	Global Strategy Group	D+2.0	4.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 64%	0.130	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 59%	0.168	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 55%	0.202	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 54%	0.209	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 50%	0.246	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
9	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 64%	0.410	✗
10	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
11	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗