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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Brandon M. Williams (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+1.0
Final polls said
D+3.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 3.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+4.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 50% | 0.254 | ✗ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 54% | 0.295 | ✗ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 13 | Race to the WH | Dem 59% | 0.348 | ✗ |
| 14 | The Economist | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Siena College2022-10-292
Global Strategy Group2022-10-264
Siena College2022-09-2711
Global Strategy Group2022-09-175
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Brandon M. Williams (R) won, by about 1.0 points (R+1.0).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.