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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Joseph D. Morelle (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+4.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tarrance Group2022-10-127
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Joseph D. Morelle (D) won, by about 11.3 points (D+11.3).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.