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Toss-up · 2022 House
New York House
In the 2022 New York House race, Joseph D. Morelle (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+7.7
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 8 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Tarrance Group2022-10-127
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 New York House race?
Joseph D. Morelle (D) won, by about 7.7 points (D+7.7).
When was the 2022 New York House election held?
It was held in November 2022.