Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 7.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 52% | 0.273 | ✗ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 61% | 0.371 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 65% | 0.423 | ✗ |
| 9 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2022-10-15 | 504 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2022-09-19 | 506 | D+3.0 | 3 |