Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | EVEN | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.3 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.119 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.266 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRH Elections | 2022-11-01 | 529 | EVEN | 7 |