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Toss-up · 2022 House
Oregon House
In the 2022 Oregon House race, Val Hoyle (D) won by about 7 points.
Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | EVEN | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 66% | 0.117 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 11 | Race to the WH | Dem 61% | 0.152 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 52% | 0.266 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
RRH Elections2022-11-017
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon House race?
Val Hoyle (D) won, by about 7.5 points (D+7.5).
When was the 2022 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.