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Toss-up · 2022 House
Oregon House
In the 2022 Oregon House race, Andrea Salinas (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+5.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 11 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 71% | 0.498 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2022-10-041
Cygnal2022-09-297
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon House race?
Andrea Salinas (D) won, by about 2.5 points (D+2.5).
When was the 2022 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2022.