Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+5.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.4 | 7.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 53% | 0.220 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2022-10-04 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Cygnal | 2022-09-29 | 400 | R+5.0 | 7 |