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Toss-up · 2022 House
Oregon House
In the 2022 Oregon House race, Andrea Salinas (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
R+2.0
2 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+5.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 61% | 0.153 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.219 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2022-10-041
Cygnal2022-09-297
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oregon House race?
Andrea Salinas (D) won, by about 2.5 points (D+2.5).
When was the 2022 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.