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Toss-up · 2022 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2022 Pennsylvania House race, Summer Lee (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.4
Final polls said
D+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+14.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2022-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Pennsylvania House race?
Summer Lee (D) won, by about 12.4 points (D+12.4).
When was the 2022 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.