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Toss-up · 2022 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2022 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Patriot Polling | R+2.5 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.184 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2022-10-194
Patriot Polling2022-10-085
GQR2022-09-146
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Pennsylvania House race?
Matt Cartwright (D) won, by about 2.5 points (D+2.5).
When was the 2022 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2022.