Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Patriot Polling | R+2.5 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | GQR | D+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 65% | 0.125 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 57% | 0.184 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 52% | 0.270 | ✗ |
| 11 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-19 | 415 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-10-08 | 289 | R+2.5 | 5 |
| GQR | 2022-09-14 | 400 | D+8.0 | 6 |