Toss-up · 2022 House

Pennsylvania House

In the 2022 Pennsylvania House race, Matt Cartwright (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+2.5

Final polls said

D+6.0

1 late poll · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The New York Times/Siena College	D+6.0	3.5	✓
2	Patriot Polling	R+2.5	5.0	✗
3	GQR	D+8.0	5.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 64%	0.130	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 59%	0.168	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 57%	0.184	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
7	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
8	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 50%	0.250	—
10	The Economist	Rep 52%	0.270	✗
11	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
12	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗