Toss-up · 2022 House

Rhode Island House

In the 2022 Rhode Island House race, Seth M. Magaziner (D) won by about 4 points.

Seth M. Magaziner· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+3.7

Final polls said

EVEN

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department	EVEN	3.7	✗
2	Mellman Group	R+3.0	6.7	✗
3	Fleming & Associates	R+6.0	9.7	✗
4	Suffolk University	R+8.5	12.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 58%	0.179	✓
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 54%	0.212	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
4	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
5	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—
6	Race to the WH	Rep 58%	0.336	✗
7	CNalysis	Rep 60%	0.360	✗
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 61%	0.372	✗
9	The Economist	Rep 62%	0.384	✗
10	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 74%	0.549	✗
11	Elections Daily	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.562	✗
14	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.562	✗