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Toss-up · 2022 House
Rhode Island House
In the 2022 Rhode Island House race, Seth M. Magaziner (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | R+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Fleming & Associates | R+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Suffolk University | R+8.5 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 58% | 0.179 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 10 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.549 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2022-10-234
Suffolk University2022-10-0312
Mellman Group2022-10-037
Fleming & Associates2022-10-0110
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Rhode Island House race?
Seth M. Magaziner (D) won, by about 3.7 points (D+3.7).
When was the 2022 Rhode Island House election held?
It was held in November 2022.