Actual result
D+3.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mellman Group | R+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.8 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | Fleming & Associates | R+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Suffolk University | R+8.5 | 12.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 58% | 0.179 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 4 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Rep 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 61% | 0.372 | ✗ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 62% | 0.384 | ✗ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.559 | ✗ |
| 11 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2022-10-23 | 812 | EVEN | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-10-03 | 422 | R+8.5 | 12 |
| Mellman Group | 2022-10-03 | 400 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2022-10-01 | 254 | R+6.0 | 10 |