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Toss-up · 2022 House
Texas House
In the 2022 Texas House race, Monica De La Cruz (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bendixen & Amandi International | EVEN | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 76% | 0.059 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Bendixen & Amandi International2022-10-128
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Texas House race?
Monica De La Cruz (R) won, by about 8.5 points (R+8.5).
When was the 2022 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.