Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Bendixen & Amandi International | EVEN | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Rep 76% | 0.058 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bendixen & Amandi International | 2022-10-12 | 400 | EVEN | 8 |