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Toss-up · 2022 House
Texas House
In the 2022 Texas House race, Monica De La Cruz (R) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
R+8.5
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bendixen & Amandi International | EVEN | 8.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 77% | 0.053 | ✓ |
| 9 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 13 | The Economist | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 14 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 54% | 0.292 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Bendixen & Amandi International2022-10-128
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Texas House race?
Monica De La Cruz (R) won, by about 8.5 points (R+8.5).
When was the 2022 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2022.