Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 70% | 0.485 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2022-10-15 | 820 | EVEN | 3 |