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Toss-up · 2022 House
Virginia House
In the 2022 Virginia House race, Jen A. Kiggans (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 69% | 0.482 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2022-10-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Virginia House race?
Jen A. Kiggans (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2022 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.