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Toss-up · 2022 House
Virginia House
In the 2022 Virginia House race, Jen A. Kiggans (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | CNalysis | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 55% | 0.199 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 52% | 0.230 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 59% | 0.343 | ✗ |
| 14 | Race to the WH | Dem 72% | 0.518 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership2022-10-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Virginia House race?
Jen A. Kiggans (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2022 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2022.