Toss-up · 2022 House

Virginia House

In the 2022 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+4.7

Final polls said

EVEN

1 late poll · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	RRH Elections	EVEN	4.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Race to the WH	Dem 85%	0.023	✓
2	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 76%	0.060	✓
3	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 68%	0.102	✓
8	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 66%	0.116	✓
9	The Economist	Dem 65%	0.122	✓
10	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
11	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—