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Toss-up · 2022 House
Virginia House
In the 2022 Virginia House race, Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 8 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 12 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 65% | 0.425 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
RRH Elections2022-11-015
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Virginia House race?
Abigail A. Spanberger (D) won, by about 4.7 points (D+4.7).
When was the 2022 Virginia House election held?
It was held in November 2022.