Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.4 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Race to the WH | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 2 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 76% | 0.060 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Dem 66% | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 9 | The Economist | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 10 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRH Elections | 2022-11-01 | 525 | EVEN | 5 |