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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2022 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) won by about 5 points.
Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+2.0
25 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ascend Action | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+3.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | D+6.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Wick | D+2.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | co/efficient | D+1.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+8.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | Data Orbital | D+1.7 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 19 | HighGround Inc. | D+1.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 20 | KAConsulting | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 21 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 23 | Patriot Polling | D+0.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 24 | Phillips Academy | D+0.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 25 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 26 | Civiqs | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Center Street PAC | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 28 | Emerson College | R+0.4 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 29 | Data for Progress | R+1.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 30 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.134 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 53% | 0.224 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
43 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2022-11-066
Data Orbital2022-11-053
Research Co.2022-11-051
Targoz Market Research2022-11-042
Data for Progress2022-11-046
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Arizona Senate race?
Mark Kelly (D) won, by about 4.9 points (D+4.9).
When was the 2022 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.