Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+2.0
25 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Co. | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ascend Action | D+4.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SSRS | D+6.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+3.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Targoz Market Research | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | OnMessage Inc. | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | D+6.8 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Wick | D+2.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 15 | Noble Predictive Insights | D+2.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | co/efficient | D+1.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+8.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | Data Orbital | D+1.7 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 19 | HighGround Inc. | D+1.4 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 20 | VotePredictor | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 21 | KAConsulting | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 22 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 23 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 24 | Patriot Polling | D+0.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 25 | Phillips Academy | D+0.6 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 26 | InsiderAdvantage | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Civiqs | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 28 | Center Street PAC | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 29 | Emerson College | R+0.4 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 30 | Data for Progress | R+1.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 31 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.5 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Dem 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 66% | 0.116 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 65% | 0.122 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 64% | 0.134 | ✓ |
| 9 | CNalysis | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 10 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 55% | 0.202 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (43)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-06 | 1094 | R+1.5 | 6 |
| Data Orbital | 2022-11-05 | 550 | D+1.7 | 3 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2022-11-04 | 560 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1359 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-02 | 550 | EVEN | 5 |
| KAConsulting | 2022-11-02 | 501 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2022-11-01 | 500 | D+1.4 | 3 |
| Patriot Polling | 2022-11-01 | 814 | D+0.7 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2022-11-01 | 1157 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1075 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 1000 | R+0.4 | 5 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-31 | 852 | EVEN | 5 |
| Phillips Academy | 2022-10-29 | 985 | D+0.6 | 4 |
| Wick | 2022-10-28 | 1122 | D+2.3 | 3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-10-28 | 1003 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-27 | 558 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2022-10-25 | 604 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-25 | 800 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-24 | 550 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research | 2022-10-23 | 669 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-20 | 1111 | D+1.8 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2022-10-16 | 600 | D+3.2 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-16 | 1078 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-14 | 893 | EVEN | 5 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2022-10-12 | 500 | D+2.8 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2022-10-12 | 502 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-11 | 550 | D+4.4 | 0 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1000 | D+2.5 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-10-09 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-09 | 954 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-10-06 | 551 | D+17.0 | 12 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2022-10-05 | 674 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-02 | 1161 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| SSRS | 2022-09-29 | 795 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2022-09-24 | 1008 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-23 | 500 | D+6.8 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2022-09-21 | 1260 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-17 | 768 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-16 | 1080 | D+1.2 | 4 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-09-12 | 500 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-08 | 400 | D+10.0 | 5 |