Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Arizona Senate

In the 2022 Arizona Senate race, Mark Kelly (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+4.9

Final polls said

D+2.0

25 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Research Co.	D+4.0	0.9	✓
2	Marist College	D+4.0	0.9	✓
3	BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research	D+4.0	0.9	✓
4	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+4.0	0.9	✓
5	Ascend Action	D+4.0	0.9	✓
6	The New York Times/Siena College	D+6.0	1.1	✓
7	SSRS	D+6.0	1.1	✓
8	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+3.2	1.7	✓
9	Targoz Market Research	D+3.0	1.9	✓
10	OnMessage Inc.	D+3.0	1.9	✓
11	YouGov	D+3.0	1.9	✓
12	Suffolk University	D+6.8	1.9	✓
13	Wick	D+2.3	2.6	✓
14	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	D+2.0	2.9	✓
15	Noble Predictive Insights	D+2.0	2.9	✓
16	co/efficient	D+1.8	3.1	✓
17	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+8.0	3.1	✓
18	Data Orbital	D+1.7	3.2	✓
19	HighGround Inc.	D+1.4	3.5	✓
20	KAConsulting	D+1.0	3.9	✓
21	Remington Research Group	D+1.0	3.9	✓
22	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	D+1.0	3.9	✓
23	Patriot Polling	D+0.7	4.2	✓
24	Phillips Academy	D+0.6	4.3	✓
25	InsiderAdvantage	EVEN	4.9	✗
26	Civiqs	EVEN	4.9	✗
27	Center Street PAC	D+10.0	5.1	✓
28	Emerson College	R+0.4	5.3	✗
29	Data for Progress	R+1.0	5.9	✗
30	Trafalgar Group	R+1.5	6.4	✗

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
3	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 73%	0.073	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 69%	0.096	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 66%	0.116	✓
7	JHK Forecasts	Dem 65%	0.122	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 64%	0.134	✓
9	CNalysis	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
10	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
11	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 53%	0.224	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
13	Fox News	Dem 50%	0.250	—
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—