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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
California Senate
In the 2022 California Senate race, Alex Padilla (D) won by about 22 points.
Actual result
D+22.1
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+26.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+16.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-056
Research Co.2022-11-056
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2022-11-014
SurveyUSA2022-10-090
SurveyUSA2022-10-090
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California Senate race?
Alex Padilla (D) won, by about 22.1 points (D+22.1).
When was the 2022 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.