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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
California Senate
In the 2022 California Senate race, Alex Padilla (D) won by about 22 points.
Actual result
D+22.1
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+26.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+16.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-056
Research Co.2022-11-056
University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy2022-11-014
SurveyUSA2022-10-090
SurveyUSA2022-10-090
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 California Senate race?
Alex Padilla (D) won, by about 22.1 points (D+22.1).
When was the 2022 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.