Actual result
D+22.1
Final polls said
D+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+22.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+18.6 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | D+26.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+16.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy | 2022-11-01 | 802 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-09 | 1013 | D+22.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-09 | 1013 | D+22.0 | 0 |