Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Florida Senate

In the 2022 Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio (R) won by about 16 points.

Actual result

R+16.4

Final polls said

R+8.0

11 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Data for Progress	R+12.0	4.4	✓
2	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	R+11.0	5.4	✓
3	Research Co.	R+10.0	6.4	✓
4	Amber Integrated	R+9.0	7.4	✓
5	Siena College	R+8.0	8.4	✓
6	Civiqs	R+7.0	9.4	✓
7	YouGov	R+7.0	9.4	✓
8	Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research	R+7.0	9.4	✓
9	InsiderAdvantage	R+6.0	10.4	✓
10	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+6.0	10.4	✓
11	Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative	R+5.7	10.7	✓
12	RMG Research	R+5.0	11.4	✓
13	Center Street PAC	R+5.0	11.4	✓
14	Victory Insights	R+4.0	12.4	✓
15	Suffolk University	R+4.0	12.4	✓
16	Sachs Media	R+3.0	13.4	✓
17	African American Research Collaborative	R+2.0	14.4	✓
18	Clarity Campaign Labs	EVEN	16.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Split Ticket	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
8	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 91%	0.007	✓
10	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓