Actual result
R+16.4
Final polls said
R+8.0
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | R+12.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+11.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+10.6 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | R+10.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Amber Integrated | R+9.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Siena College | R+8.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Civiqs | R+7.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+7.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | R+7.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | InsiderAdvantage | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | R+5.7 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | RMG Research | R+5.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Center Street PAC | R+5.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
| 15 | Victory Insights | R+4.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 16 | Suffolk University | R+4.0 | 12.4 | ✓ |
| 17 | Sachs Media | R+3.0 | 13.4 | ✓ |
| 18 | African American Research Collaborative | R+2.0 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 19 | Clarity Campaign Labs | EVEN | 16.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.007 | ✓ |
| 10 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | R+10.0 | 6 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1436 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-01 | 550 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-11-01 | 600 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Victory Insights | 2022-10-31 | 500 | R+4.0 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-31 | 772 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Siena College | 2022-10-31 | 659 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-26 | 1117 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2022-10-21 | 622 | R+11.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-21 | 1251 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2022-10-18 | 644 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2022-10-14 | 719 | R+5.7 | 11 |
| RMG Research | 2022-10-12 | 685 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| African American Research Collaborative | 2022-10-08 | 1250 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2022-09-27 | 800 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2022-09-24 | 2860 | EVEN | 16 |
| Siena College | 2022-09-22 | 669 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-19 | 617 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-17 | 500 | R+4.0 | 12 |
| Sachs Media | 2022-09-10 | 600 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Center Street PAC | 2022-09-09 | 608 | R+5.0 | 11 |