Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Iowa Senate

In the 2022 Iowa Senate race, Chuck Grassley (R) won by about 12 points.

Chuck Grassley· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+12.2

Final polls said

R+9.0

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Selzer & Co.	R+12.0	0.2	✓
2	Cygnal	R+11.2	1.0	✓
3	Tarrance Group	R+11.0	1.2	✓
4	Emerson College	R+10.7	1.5	✓
5	Civiqs	R+8.0	4.2	✓
6	Change Research	R+3.0	9.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Race to the WH	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Fox News	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
12	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
13	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
14	Split Ticket	Rep 90%	0.010	✓