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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Iowa Senate
In the 2022 Iowa Senate race, Chuck Grassley (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
R+9.0
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+11.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+11.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+10.7 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Civiqs | R+8.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Selzer & Co.2022-11-020
Cygnal2022-10-261
Civiqs2022-10-244
Tarrance Group2022-10-171
Change Research2022-10-169
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Iowa Senate race?
Chuck Grassley (R) won, by about 12.2 points (R+12.2).
When was the 2022 Iowa Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.