Actual result
R+12.2
Final polls said
R+9.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.7 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cygnal | R+11.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+11.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+10.7 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Civiqs | R+8.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Change Research | R+3.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Race to the WH | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2022-11-02 | 801 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-26 | 600 | R+11.2 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 623 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2022-10-17 | 600 | R+11.0 | 1 |
| Change Research | 2022-10-16 | 1008 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2022-10-11 | 620 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-03 | 959 | R+10.7 | 1 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-03 | 600 | R+14.4 | 2 |
| Change Research | 2022-09-25 | 978 | R+5.0 | 7 |