Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Illinois Senate

In the 2022 Illinois Senate race, Tammy Duckworth (D) won by about 15 points.

Tammy Duckworth· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+15.3

Final polls said

D+14.6

3 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Civiqs	D+16.0	0.7	✓
2	Public Policy Polling	D+14.0	1.3	✓
3	Research Co.	D+18.0	2.7	✓
4	Repass	D+19.7	4.4	✓
5	Emerson College	D+9.8	5.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	Fox News	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
10	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
11	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
12	Split Ticket	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
13	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 90%	0.010	✓