Actual result
D+15.3
Final polls said
D+14.6
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+15.6 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | D+16.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Repass | D+19.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+9.8 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2022-11-05 | 450 | D+18.0 | 3 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-24 | 659 | D+16.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-22 | 1000 | D+9.8 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-10-10 | 770 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Repass | 2022-10-08 | 1000 | D+19.7 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-22 | 1000 | D+18.9 | 4 |