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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2022 Illinois Senate race, Tammy Duckworth (D) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
D+15.3
Final polls said
D+14.6
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Civiqs | D+16.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+14.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research Co. | D+18.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Repass | D+19.7 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+9.8 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research Co.2022-11-053
Civiqs2022-10-241
Emerson College2022-10-226
Public Policy Polling2022-10-101
Repass2022-10-084
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Illinois Senate race?
Tammy Duckworth (D) won, by about 15.3 points (D+15.3).
When was the 2022 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.