Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+11.5
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+13.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | R+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+11.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+16.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Remington Research Group | R+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | 2022-11-06 | 746 | R+15.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-31 | 1079 | R+11.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-10-29 | 791 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 1000 | R+13.5 | 0 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-10-24 | 1011 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-25 | 1160 | R+11.4 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-09-16 | 670 | R+11.0 | 2 |