Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Missouri Senate

In the 2022 Missouri Senate race, Eric Schmitt (R) won by about 13 points.

Eric Schmitt· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+13.3

Final polls said

R+11.5

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+13.5	0.2	✓
2	Civiqs	R+15.0	1.7	✓
3	Trafalgar Group	R+11.0	2.3	✓
4	SurveyUSA	R+9.0	4.3	✓
5	Remington Research Group	R+9.0	4.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
4	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	Fox News	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
7	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
8	JHK Forecasts	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
9	Race to the WH	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
11	Split Ticket	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
13	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 98%	0.001	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓