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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Missouri Senate
In the 2022 Missouri Senate race, Eric Schmitt (R) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+11.5
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+13.5 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | R+15.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Trafalgar Group | R+11.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+9.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 98% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Civiqs2022-11-062
Trafalgar Group2022-10-312
SurveyUSA2022-10-294
Emerson College2022-10-270
Remington Research Group2022-10-244
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Missouri Senate race?
Eric Schmitt (R) won, by about 13.3 points (R+13.3).
When was the 2022 Missouri Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.