Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+3.9
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+3.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Wick | R+4.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | R+4.9 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | R+1.2 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | ActiVote | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Emerson College | R+5.7 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Data for Progress | R+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | R+6.4 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Civiqs | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Marist College | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Global Strategy Group | EVEN | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Remington Research Group | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 91% | 0.009 | ✓ |
| 2 | Elections Daily | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Race to the WH | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 82% | 0.032 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 77% | 0.052 | ✓ |
| 8 | CNalysis | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fox News | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-11-05 | 1098 | R+6.4 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1322 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-11-02 | 1183 | R+4.9 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-11-01 | 1140 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-31 | 674 | EVEN | 3 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2022-10-29 | 724 | R+1.2 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | R+5.7 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-10-21 | 600 | R+3.8 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-19 | 1130 | EVEN | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-18 | 1081 | R+4.2 | 1 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-10-12 | 902 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Wick | 2022-10-10 | 1009 | R+4.5 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2022-10-07 | 606 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2022-09-30 | 677 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Cygnal | 2022-09-25 | 650 | D+0.3 | 4 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2022-09-22 | 731 | R+0.3 | 3 |
| Civiqs | 2022-09-19 | 586 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| ActiVote | 2022-09-19 | 250 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-09-16 | 800 | EVEN | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-15 | 1000 | R+2.4 | 1 |
| East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 2022-09-09 | 1020 | R+2.8 | 0 |