Toss-up · 2022 Senate

North Carolina Senate

In the 2022 North Carolina Senate race, Ted Budd (R) won by about 3 points.

Ted Budd· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+3.2

Final polls said

R+3.9

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Cygnal	R+3.8	0.6	✓
2	Wick	R+4.5	1.3	✓
3	East Carolina University Center for Survey Research	R+4.9	1.7	✓
4	Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies	R+1.2	2.0	✓
5	Public Policy Polling	R+1.0	2.2	✓
6	SurveyUSA	R+1.0	2.2	✓
7	ActiVote	R+1.0	2.2	✓
8	Emerson College	R+5.7	2.5	✓
9	Data for Progress	R+6.0	2.8	✓
10	Trafalgar Group	R+6.4	3.2	✓
11	Civiqs	EVEN	3.2	✗
12	Marist College	EVEN	3.2	✗
13	Global Strategy Group	EVEN	3.2	✗
14	Remington Research Group	R+7.0	3.8	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 91%	0.009	✓
2	Elections Daily	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Race to the WH	Rep 89%	0.012	✓
4	The Economist	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 82%	0.032	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 77%	0.052	✓
8	CNalysis	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
9	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
10	Fox News	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
11	RealClearPolitics	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
12	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Split Ticket	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
14	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓