Toss-up · 2022 Senate

New Hampshire Senate

In the 2022 New Hampshire Senate race, Maggie Hassan (D) won by about 9 points.

Maggie Hassan· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+9.1

Final polls said

D+2.5

14 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Suffolk University	D+8.4	0.7	✓
2	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	D+10.0	0.9	✓
3	Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research	D+7.0	2.1	✓
4	American Research Group	D+13.0	3.9	✓
5	Emerson College	D+4.5	4.6	✓
6	Phillips Academy	D+3.6	5.5	✓
7	Data for Progress	D+3.0	6.1	✓
8	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+2.0	7.1	✓
9	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	D+2.0	7.1	✓
10	InsiderAdvantage	D+1.8	7.3	✓
11	co/efficient	EVEN	9.1	✗
12	Wick	R+0.1	9.2	✗
13	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	R+1.0	10.1	✗
14	Trafalgar Group	R+1.3	10.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 79%	0.044	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 78%	0.048	✓
3	CNalysis	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
8	Split Ticket	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
9	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
10	JHK Forecasts	Dem 72%	0.078	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 67%	0.111	✓
12	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 63%	0.141	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—