Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+2.5
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+8.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+13.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+4.5 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Phillips Academy | D+3.6 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Data for Progress | D+3.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+2.1 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+2.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+2.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | InsiderAdvantage | D+1.8 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | co/efficient | EVEN | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Wick | R+0.1 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | R+1.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.3 | 10.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 3 | CNalysis | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 8 | Split Ticket | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 10 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 72% | 0.078 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 67% | 0.111 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillips Academy | 2022-11-05 | 1056 | D+3.6 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-11-05 | 700 | D+1.8 | 7 |
| Wick | 2022-11-04 | 725 | R+0.1 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-11-04 | 2077 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1995 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-31 | 1241 | R+1.3 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-31 | 850 | D+4.5 | 5 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-10-28 | 1541 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-25 | 1098 | EVEN | 9 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2022-10-23 | 600 | D+0.5 | 9 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2022-10-20 | 600 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-18 | 600 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-18 | 727 | D+4.1 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-16 | 1392 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2022-10-04 | 500 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-28 | 1081 | D+3.2 | 6 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2022-09-27 | 901 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-09-27 | 1147 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2022-09-25 | 500 | D+8.4 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2022-09-17 | 555 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-09-17 | 870 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-14 | 800 | D+10.5 | 1 |